Cuba and Mexico: Warming

Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque visits Mexico on Thursday, in an atmosphere of improving bilateral ties.  Close historical ties between the two countries, arising from a shared revolutionary tradition, and similar challenges from close proximity with the United States, had suffered under the administration of former Mexican President Vicente Fox. 

Things have changed since. Veteran Cuban leader Fidel Castro has handed over the presidency to his brother, Raul, who is anxious to reduce the country’s dependence on Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and focus on other relational relationships.  While Brazil has been at the forefront of this, Mexico is also a strategically important regional power because of its size and proximity, both to the island and United States. Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who took over from Fox after narrowly winning elections in 2006, has pursued a much more low-key and pragmatic foreign policy than his predecessor. While ideologically and temperamentally very different to his Venezuelan and Cuban counterparts, he has sought to normalise relations with both.

The key current bilateral issue is likely to be immigration.  While Cubans do still seek to reach the Florida coasts in -- often makeshift -- boats, an increasingly popular alternative sees migrants travelling to the Mexican state of Veracruz, from where they make their way to the US border by land, availing themselves there of the ‘wet foot dry foot’ policy, which grants Cubans automatic residency.  This is much more difficult to control, and has led to significant numbers from elsewhere in Latin America pretending to be Cuban in a bid to secure entry to the United States.  Addressing the problem will require high levels of bilateral engagement and cooperation, and could be an issue on which the Cuban government could engage with the next US administration.

Indeed, another key factor on both sides will be preparing for dealings with US President George Bush’s successor.  While Senator Barack Obama appears more willing to engage with Havana than his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, engagement is likely whoever wins. Progress will necessarily be slow and hesitant, however, because of domestic political constraints in both countries. Mexico could be a key player in such a process, as a mediator and go-between.