Canada: Harper’s gamble

Prime Minister Stephen Harper this week will likely trigger a general election, taking a calculated risk that his Conservative minority government can pick up seats despite a darkening economic climate.  It is a role of the dice that may pay off -- thanks to voters’ impressions of Harper and his main rival, opposition Liberal party leader Stephane Dion.

Counting cards.

In forcing an election, Harper is reneging on a campaign promise to stick to a fixed election schedule.  But he thinks that it is a gamble worth taking, given that Conservative electoral prospects may have reached their near-term apogee:

• Economic woes.  The Canadian economy has been somewhat insulated in recent years from the US credit crunch due to the strength of its natural resources industries -- particularly in the western provinces.  This phenomenon has helped offset the distress created in the old industrial heartlands of Ontario and Quebec by the strong ‘loonie’, or Canadian dollar. Yet a sluggish (or even contracting) US economy during the second half of the year, and moderating global commodity prices, mean that economic conditions in Canada look set to worsen.  Harper would rather get the election out of the way now, rather than allowing his opponents to blame him for faltering growth.

• Fulfilled agenda?  The prime minister claims that the government has fulfilled most of its agenda, and has earned the right to seek a new mandate.  Certainly, a pledged cut in the goods and services tax has been enacted, various gestures have been made to reduce federal-provincial ‘fiscal imbalances’, and Canada’s mission in Afghanistan has been extended until 2011.  But long-promised senate reform remains on the back burner, and the government’s climate agenda has been less than ambitious.

• Public satisfaction.  For the moment, the Canadian public is largely satisfied with the government’s performance.  The Conservatives enjoy the support of 37% of the public, according to a September 1 Globe and Mail-CTV poll -- slightly better than the party’s performance during the last election, and eight percentage points ahead of the main opposition Liberal party.  If Harper can boost that backing above 40% during the autumn campaign, he will have a shot at an outright majority.

Dion deficit.

Pity Liberal party leader Stephane Dion: the former environment minister and political science professor has a creditable record in opposition.  He has proposed an innovative new carbon tax (offset by income and corporate tax cuts) as part of his ‘Green Shift’ plan, and improved his once-awkward public speaking skills.  But Harper has played a shrewd game of ‘chicken’, repeatedly goading the Liberals to accept his policies or topple the government; Dion has generally caved in. 

This has created something of a perceived leadership gap: the Globe and Mail poll showed that 53% of the public see Harper as “a decisive leader”, against only 17% for Dion.  The Liberal leader is competent, intelligent and possesses political vision.  But he is unlikely to be Canada’s next prime minister.