Mexico: PRI eminent

The new session of Mexico's Congress begins on Monday and runs until mid-December. Public security is likely to top the agenda following an increase in reported kidnappings, including the recent kidnapping and murder of the 14-year old son of a prominent businessman. A senior police commander was arrested, accused of leading the gang that carried out the abduction. In the face of outrage over such cases, legislation is likely to regulate the federal police, reform the Penal Code, and seek tougher penalties for kidnappers.

However, as no party has an overall parliamentary majority, President Felipe Calderon continues to depend on opposition parties, particularly the centre-left Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Public outrage means this is likely to be forthcoming on public security legislation, but consensus is less likely on other issues -- particularly Calderon's flagship moves to reform the oil sector, where the PRI and its rival on the left, the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), have put forward alternative policies. Since Calderon will not to put any bill to Congress unless he is reasonably certain it will pass, and since the opposition will try and extract concessions from what it sees as a weak government, paralysis is likely on many issues, including oil.

The other major trend may well be further weakening of the PRD's 2006 presidential candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Lopez Obrador continues to insist that fraud robbed him of victory, and that he is Mexico's "legitimate president". He has advocated radical opposition to oil reform, but conciliatory moves by PRD members towards the government demonstrate his marginalisation within his party. State governors also recently ignored a call from Lopez Obrador not to talk to federal institutions, meeting Finance Minister Agustin Carstens to discuss next year’s budget. Faced with such resistance, Lopez Obrador could radicalise further. Already his supporters have been occupying PRD headquarters, and similar moves are likely, particularly over oil reform. This could dramatically weaken the PRD and see the PRI become the dominant political force in the run-up to next year's mid-term elections.