Why Ukraine is not Georgia

The conflict in Georgia has had ripple effects throughout and beyond the former Soviet space, heightening concern that Moscow might try to repeat its military manoeuvres elsewhere in what it terms the ‘near abroad’.  Speculation over Russia’s next move has centred on the often-difficult relationship between Russia and Ukraine -- celebrating its independence day on Sunday. Some in Kiev -- and elsewhere -- have questioned whether Moscow would or could pose a direct threat to Ukrainian sovereignty.

The conflict in Georgia has certainly worsened already challenging relations between Moscow and Kiev.  Moscow has accused Ukraine of complicity in alleged Georgian “ethnic cleansing” of its separatist regions, as Kiev had supplied tanks, armoured personnel carriers, missiles and anti-aircraft artillery to Tbilisi ahead of the war. 

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko stridently objected to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is headquartered in the Crimean city of Sevastopol, being used in the Georgian conflict.  He also issued a decree aimed at restricting fleet operations, probably a pretext for his larger goal of removing Russian forces from Ukraine by the time their mandate expires in 2017.

The controversy over the Black Sea Fleet will exacerbate tensions on Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, and Russia might attempt to radicalise Crimea’s largely pro-Russian population.  However, political tensions will not erupt into a military confrontation.  Crimea has been an integral part of Ukraine since 1954, and any aspirations towards separatism were marginalised in the early 1990s.  Despite inflammatory rhetoric from both sides, Ukraine is not Georgia, therefore, and Crimea is not South Ossetia.  The posturing between Moscow and Kiev may heat up, but not to the point of a hot war.