Zimbabwe: Who governs?

When President Thabo Mbeki welcomes members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to South Africa for its heads of state summit this weekend, the agenda (ordinarily devoted to procedural concerns) will be overwhelmed by one issue: the lingering political and economic crisis in Zimbabwe.  Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe will probably be at the summit himself, despite calls for his exclusion while power-sharing talks continue in Harare.  After days of intense negotiations, the talks adjourned without a deal on August 13.

Mugabe and his ruling ZANU-PF party apparently feel they are negotiating from strength, and have insisted on immunity from prosecution for senior regime figures, as well as the full implementation of the controversial land reform and business indigenisation programmes.  Rumours suggest that Morgan Tsvangirai -- Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader and first round presidential election winner -- is seeking the position of executive prime minister, with control over the government’s composition and agenda, reducing Mugabe to a ceremonial role.  However, the leader of a small MDC faction, Arthur Mutambara, has also been included in the talks.  When negotiations adjourned on the 13th, all sides denied rumours that Mutambara had reached a side deal with Mugabe -- his ten seats in the National Assembly would allow ZANU-PF to overcome the Tsvangirai bloc’s slim advantage.

Even if Tsvangirai is not marginalised explicitly, he will still have to tread carefully.  It is difficult to envisage the MDC being allowed to exercise much power in a power-sharing deal with ZANU-PF, especially since the police, intelligence and military have rejected the prospect of its leadership.  Moreover, by participating in a unity government, Tsvangirai will have to push hard for electoral and constitutional reform, and fresh elections much sooner than the full five year term ZANU-PF is asking.  After the government sponsored campaign of violence and intimidation against the opposition since Mugabe’s first round loss on March 29, Tsvangirai’s legitimacy will evaporate if he is perceived to have simply legitimised the ZANU-PF regime by his participation.