Presidential Olympiad

This week the Beijing Olympics will temporarily eclipse another of the world’s most media-saturated events -- the US presidential race.  The quadrennial sporting showcase has created several acute strategic dilemmas for the campaigns of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain, who are likely to find themselves starved of media oxygen from this Friday until the Closing Ceremony on August 24.  Indeed, the contest over who can surmount the Olympic obstacle most adroitly may help determine the outcome of another ostensibly amateur sport dominated by professionals: the race for the White House.

The Olympics falls in the crucial two-week period ahead of the Democratic and Republican National Conventions (on August 25-28 and September 1-4, respectively).  Normally, presidential campaigns use this period to make a ‘first impression’ on voters.  US political campaigns tend to be an attempt to shape a candidates’ image in minds of voters, while marring their opponent’s appeal, rather than a substantive, issue-oriented debate. 

Normally this image-oriented contest within a contest begins during the convention lead-in.  This may seem strange, given the saturation media coverage generated during the primary campaign.  But surveys of past presidential races show that most voters only begin paying attention as the party conventions approach.  A big advertising buy in several key swing states helps introduce (or re-introduce) the candidates, planting a seed in their minds ahead of the organised hagiography of the conventions. 

That will not happen this year.  Even Obama, whom the McCain campaign has already derided as the biggest ‘celebrity’ in the world, cannot compete for attention with the pint-sized US women’s gymnastics team.  Instead, the candidates will seek to bask in the reflected glory of the games:

• Ad blitz:  The Obama camp last month announced a 5 million dollar advertising deal with NBC Universal, which will televise the Olympics in the United States.  Presidential hopefuls typically avoid splashing out on national television ad buys, which cost a huge amount and hit plenty of states that are very unlikely to change their minds.  But Obama’s war chest is overflowing -- and his deal provoked a last minute countermove by McCain to snap up 6 million dollars in Olympic advertising.  The Arizona senator has promised to accept public campaign funding, which will limit his spending after the Republican convention.  Therefore, he has decided to devote a large chunk of his resources to stealing his opponent’s Olympic glory.

• ‘Veepstakes’:  The Olympics schedule has affected the timing and potential impact of Obama’s vice-presidential choice.  If he announces his running mate during the Games, it could be relegated to cable news coverage by the balance beam.  But with McCain poised to blunt his post-convention poll bounce by publicly naming his pick immediately after the Dems’ party breaks up on August 29, Obama may need to announce his number two before the Closing Ceremony.  Look for him to unveil his pick during the Bulgarian and Iranian-dominated weightlifting competition.

This presidential Olympiad looks fiercely competitive.  Whoever takes the media gold during the Games may also take the White House.