Tinderbox Philippines

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and other separatist groups have fought for independence in the southern Philippines since the 1960s. Recent hostilities have posed a serious challenge to a 2003 ceasefire between Manila and the MILF, and could yet escalate this week.

Manila has given Muslim separatists until Friday to vacate nine southern villages it claims the rebels occupied last week. The alleged incursions took place after the Philippine Supreme Court halted a deal -- brokered by Malaysia -- to expand the country's Muslim autonomous region on Mindanao, the second largest and easternmost island in the Philippines. Civilian and military officials fear that MILF operatives may now try to disrupt elections; about 1.6 million voters are due on Monday to elect a governor, and 24 members of a regional legislative assembly in the six-province Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). 

The ARMM was established as the result of a peace deal with another Islamist group in 1989, yet many Muslims want more powers for the region -- one of the most impoverished areas in the Philippines. Around 17,000 soldiers and police officers have been sent in to guard the elections -- particularly in 200 villages where there has been a long history of bloodletting because of a rebel presence. 

Mutual distrust

Both Manila and MILF remain unconvinced of each other's sincerity. The MILF leadership asserts that recent fighting is a spontaneous manifestation of frustration among field commanders and has not been authorised by its Central Committee, which remains committed to the peace process. However, attacks have taken place almost simultaneously across Mindanao and have involved four base commands, suggesting otherwise.

The government certainly views the ceasefire violations as being authorised, or at least tolerated, by the Central Committee in order to pressure the government back to the negotiating table, and not as a sign of breakdown in MILF command and control. The majority of MILF field commanders remain loyal to Chairman Al-Haj Murad, though some oppose the peace process.

Manila and Washington want a settlement with the MILF to prevent Mindanao becoming a base for militants linked to al-Qaida. Yet low-level unrest by field commanders is likely to continue, with some risk of an upsurge in violence. While some hardline MILF commanders advocate quitting the peace talks, a return to all-out war is unlikely -- the MILF do not have the resources to engage in a sustained period of hostilities -- though more terrorist attacks are to be expected.