Pakistan: presidential perils

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf might have hoped for some peace, to coincide with his scheduled visit to the Olympic Games later in the week. After all, the host, China, is a vital ally which he would do well not to offend. Yet his opponents in the country’s civilian government have given him no such respite: they are planning to impeach him. Ruling Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP) leader Asif Ali Zardari met this week with former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League, for three days of talks on tactics against the President. A formal decision was expected as we went to press, and parliament might be able to consider a motion as soon as Monday, with the president responding in the coming weeks.

The civilian government has been at odds with Musharraf since it was elected in February, when the PPP brought together a broad coalition (including some parties formerly supportive of Musharraf) on a platform of restoring politically-inconvenient judges removed by the president in November. The issue of what to do about the judges -- and Musharraf -- has dominated the attention of the unwieldy alliance ever since. In this context, the Olympic trip (first cancelled, and then merely postponed, then cancelled again) was an act of bravado, coming just before a deadline set for next week by lawyers’ groups, for Musharraf to restore fired justices.

Musharraf options

Musharraf has previously suggested that he might step down rather than face an impeachment battle -- though other options exist for the wily political operator. Following talks with his party, he could work to defeat impeachment in parliament. Tactical concessions on the reinstatement of judges might be enough to divide the forces ranged against him in the Senate, where a two-thirds vote is necessary to remove him from office but in which only half the members voting are firm Musharraf opponents (after all, some of the reinstated judges are no friends of the PPP). If that tactic fails, he could always go back on his promise not to dissolve parliament and declare fresh elections, or even impose a state of emergency as he chose to do in November, gambling that other political institutions in Pakistan (and the military in particular) would side with him. However, that might be a step too far, given the military’s recent unwillingness to fight political battles, and the demands the president has made of it in pursuing the ‘war on terror’ alongside his US allies. Whether out of expediency or not, Musharraf’s advisers have been careful to insist on his democratic intentions when briefing the media.

Economic mess

In such an uncertain atmosphere, the markets have taken fright, with the weakened stock market falling close to a two-year low and the currency approaching record levels of weakness. Given the effect of economic uncertainty on issues of great political salience, such as food provision, the economic and political crises could feed into one another to render the country ungovernable in the long run. Though they are seeking different outcomes, all the parties in current crisis will hope that it does not go on too long.