The Mauritanian coup

Mauritania’s coup yesterday, which saw the removal of President Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi from office after sixteen months in power, might seem eerily familiar to watchers of the state’s troubled politics -- both for the cast of characters, and their motivations. The coup -- garnering swift condemnations by international bodies -- was led by Mohammed Ould Abdelaziz, a leader of the bloodless coup in 2005 and a member of the junta which ruled the country for two years afterwards. Nor is military intervention in politics uncommon, in a country where the military ruled for decades, coup attempts have been frequent, and democratic institutions and culture remain weak.

Power play

The coup follows months of increasing tensions between Ould Abdallahi and the country’s parliament since May, when he replaced his technocratic Prime Minister Zeine Ould Zeidane, with Yahya Ould Ahmed El-Waghev, the leader of a newly formed pro-presidential party. Ould Waghev's first cabinet saw the return of many pre-coup political operators and the exit of technocrats, to the alarm of military figures who saw their economic and political prerogatives threatened by a newly ‘political’ government.

Ould Waghev's government fell in early July in the face of a no-confidence vote, but the president retained him and asked him to form another government. The operators stayed too, to the growing concern of military figures. What finally triggered the coup was the president's attempt to sack Ould Abdelaziz and other senior military figures, who were perceived to have been agitating parliamentary opposition against him. Ould Abdallahi felt compelled to engage in a trial of strength, and promptly lost.

Here another familiar theme from the country’s politics -- natural resources -- is likely to have played a role. Despite early disappointments in exploiting its oil and gas reserves, Mauritania received significant investment from outside hydrocarbons firms in the recent era of high prices, revenue from which was shortly expected to come on stream. The military figures faced removal from office just as they had a chance to decide on the allocation of those funds.

Outlook

In response to foreign calls to reinstate the president (accompanied by not-so-veiled threats to halt aid), the coup leaders have promised the next best thing -- fresh elections in “as short a time as possible”. Given the two-year gap on the last occasion, the hiatus might not be all that short. The government might hope that outside powers -- and especially the United States, concerned at an Islamist threat in the country -- emphasise the importance of stability over any particular style of government.

The coup might also offer a warning to neighbouring administrations. Dry and particularly dependent on cereal imports, Mauritania was one of the earliest countries in the region to suffer from the effects of food inflation, undercutting the government’s attempts to boost growth and distracting it from its attempts to deal with ethnic tensions. As other countries come under similar strains -- notably, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Cameroon and Ivory Coast -- their governments might have grounds to become nervous too.