Is Belarus 'Europe's last dictatorship'?

Fifty OSCE observers arrive in Belarus on Monday to begin their work overseeing the progress of elections to the country’s lower house, scheduled for September 28. The result seems in little doubt -- authoritarian leader Aleksandr Lukashenka has ensured his continuance in power since 1994, in a succession of strongly-criticised polls. The electoral commission has excluded several opposition figures from standing, and the environment for protests remains harsh. 

Still, there have been some erratic signs of liberalisation that cut against the general grain of repression. Candidates have been allowed slightly greater access to official media, but subject to careful controls, to prevent a repeat of (now jailed) candidate Alyaksandr Kazulin’s unscripted remarks on TV in 2006. Moreover, (and much more significantly) a new media law was passed in June that makes internet sources -- one the few effective channels open to the opposition -- subject to similar controls as conventional media.  The same pattern can be seen in the treatment of imprisoned opposition figures, a few of whom were released early in January and February, just after a major crackdown in the New Year. Lukashenka offered seats in parliament to the opposition, but detained many anti-government figures following a bombing last month in Minsk, and presided over the violent suppression of protests that followed those detentions.

Along with the invitations offered to observers, these gestures suggest an attempt by the regime to keep up appearances, in the face of international criticism (and in contrast to the president’s image as an unrepentant strongman). Local news agency Belapan claims that Lord Timothy Bell, PR consultant to Margaret Thatcher, has been hired to represent the country abroad. Lord Bell claims to have identified double standards in western coverage already. However, despite some official contacts with European governments the EU shows little enthusiasm for an ‘Ostpolitik’ towards the economically-struggling state, and the United States reaffirmed this month its commitment to sanctions against the regime.

Opposition angst

Apart from the restrictions it faces, the opposition is dealing with problems of its own. The relatively united front it achieved in 2006 shows signs of cracking: this week the Social Democratic Party fired Kazulin as leader. His replacement, Anatol Lyawkovich, faces accusations of cooperation with the Lukashenka regime, and in any case lacks the cache of being a political prisoner (Kazulin had made attempts, during brief compassionate release from prison earlier in the year, to establish himself as a statesman and unifying figure). Despite signs -- from what polling can take place in the country -- of a political culture receptive to eventual democratic change, it seems unlikely that the opposition can do much in its present state to take advantage.