Bolivia: recall chaos

Despite legal wrangling and some departments’ refusal to accept its legitimacy, it appears that a recall referendum will take place in Bolivia this Sunday.  Voters will have the opportunity to ratify or dismiss President Evo Morales, Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera and most departmental prefects.  However, the referendum’s rules remain contested:

• The original referendum bill, which passed in both houses of Congress, stated that in order for an official to be dismissed, a larger proportion of voters would have to vote for their recall than elected them in the first place. Given that Morales was elected with 53.7% of the vote, while some prefects won their posts only narrowly, this would have favoured the government.

• The opposition-controlled Senate therefore amended the rule, stipulating that officials could be recalled if over 50% of voters demanded that. The government rejected the amendment, prompting an opposition appeal to the constitutional tribunal -- which ruled in turn that the referendum should be suspended.

• A subsequent deal between the National Electoral Court and departmental electoral courts stipulated that prefects could be recalled with an absolute majority, whereas Morales and Garcia Linera would need 53.7% of votes against to be dismissed.

Which rules?

While it seems increasingly clear that the referendum will happen, the agreement between electoral courts has done little to clarify the rules. The government claims that the original law must be upheld, and that subsequent deals are nothing more than “suggestions”.  This means that disputes are likely over the outcome, with each side mobilising their supporters on the streets -- increasing the risk of violent clashes substantially:

• Opposition starves: Opposition leaders in five departments have embarked on a hunger strike, apparently against cuts in their regions’ share of tax revenues.  However, the action defies a law that bans strikes and demonstrations in the run-up to elections and referendums.

• Government taunts: Meanwhile, rhetoric from Morales and Garcia Linera is increasingly provocative. The former accused the Cochabamba departmental prefect, not taking part in the recall vote, of cowardice, and suggested that the hunger strike would do opposition leaders good by helping them to lose weight.

Status quo

On Sunday, the overwhelming majority of officials facing recall will probably be confirmed in office.  The process will therefore do little to address underlying issues, including the level of autonomy departments should enjoy from central government, and role of the state in economic management.  Meanwhile, tensions between government and opposition will rise, making ongoing problems of governability worse. The prospect of both sides co-operating to tackle problems facing the government will become ever more remote.