Global Risks

Major changes since July 17, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has increased of a return to ‘hot wars’ in the Horn of Africa, after the rift widened between hardline and more moderate members of the Eritrea-based opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS).  A split would be a serious blow to the tentative peace process, which is already under significant pressure from the insurgency and a major humanitarian crisis, with the World Food Programme warning that more than 14 million are at risk from food shortages across the Horn of Africa.

 

Declining risks

• The collapse of Iraqi state institutions
• A US strike on Iran
• A return to serious disruption in the Balkans

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.