Cambodian fireworks

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will probably not be losing sleep over elections this week -- he has been in power for over two decades and aims to serve for several more. However, he has yet to lead a majority government and it would be a boost to be able to rule without coalition allies. A shame, then, that relations with other parties and politicians are largely fraught.

Once-formidable foe Prince Norodom Ranariddh is now in self-imposed exile. His party won the most seats in the country’s first elections in 1993, but shared power with Hun Sen, who ended up as co-prime minister with the prince. Relations have deteriorated since. Outmanoeuvred, the prince does not represent a serious threat this time around.

Opposition leader Sam Rainsy  -- who has also spent time in exile -- has been accused of defamation by the foreign minister. Rainsy has focused in his campaigning on sensitive issues such as land rights and inflation -- in a country that has sustained several years of rapid growth and has hopes of being transformed by oil reserves -- but is unlikely to win at the ballot box for his efforts.

Eleven parties are fighting for 123 seats in the National Assembly. Thousands are expected to monitor the election. Meanwhile, hundreds of troops are massed on the Thai border, where a sovereignty dispute has re-erupted that might reap electoral dividends for Hun Sen. Neither side wants the conflict to escalate, despite circumstances that make Thai and Cambodian governments keen to demonstrate nationalist credentials. However, it would not take much for an unintended eruption of fireworks on the regional stage, making up for those lacking at home.