Ethiopia/Eritrea: After UNMEE

A significant restraint on renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea may be lost on Thursday, when the mandate for the UN’s peace-keeping mission along the disputed border (UNMEE) is set to expire.

UNMEE, established as part of the Algiers peace process which ended the 1998-2000 border war, has already been under operational constraints imposed by Eritrea since Asmara imposed a de facto fuel embargo in December.  In fairly short order, UNMEE’s mission became untenable, and after it was initially scaled down nearly all troops were returned to their home countries by April. 

Although the two sides have proved irreconcilable over the demarcation of the border, blocking the fulfilment of the Algiers agreement and the restoration of relations, UNMEE at least used to provide a buffer between Africa’s two largest armies -- deployed, in some places, only metres apart.  The absence of this buffer raises the risk of an accidental engagement or other mishap escalating into a war.  Neither side wants one, and Eritrea’s regime stands to lose significantly -- but this has not stopped it from racheting up its rhetoric, or from clashing with neighbouring Djibouti (now Ethiopia’s main trade conduit) in a new border dispute.

The Security Council is considering its options for UNMEE, and may convert it into a small observer mission, in order to at least react quickly to a renewal in conflict.  After UNMEE, tensions are set to rise.