China: Olympic performance

Monday, July 21

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership attaches overwhelming importance to China's hosting of the Olympic Games next month. How events unfold will determine its chance of achieving its goals -- reinforced legitimacy and enhanced stature -- or suffering a major reversal.

• Success. The CCP will see successful Games as a vindication of its stance. It will have demonstrated strong crisis leadership -- the January-February snowstorms, Tibetan unrest, the Sichuan earthquake -- and have been seen as an exemplary promoter of the nation's stature on the international stage.
• Failure. Failure would call into question the CCP's credibility, potentially even its legitimacy. Although it would comfortably survive mild embarrassments -- including low-level protest or critical foreign press coverage, which it could sell to its domestic audience as prejudice -- a substantial humiliation would end the careers even of rising stars.  The more serious the problem, the higher the officials who might find themselves disgraced.

China's political leaders have explicitly associated themselves with the Games, in various symbolic ways:

• President Hu Jintao was the star turn at the ceremony in Tiananmen Square launching the torch on its relays on March 31;
• Beijing party leader Liu Qi brought that torch from Greece; and
• Vice-President Xi Jinping delivered a short speech at the Tiananmen ceremony.

All three can claim to be acting in an apolitical capacity, but extensive media coverage has ensured their very public association with the Games. Meanwhile, Zhang Qingli, who heads the party in Tibet, used the occasion of the torch relay there to denounce the 'Dalai Lama clique' and reaffirm China's sovereignty over the region.

Beijing has had to manage economic pressures this year with one eye on the Olympics. Once the Games are over, it can revert to taking a longer view and defuse pressures that have built up during this period, including those arising from temporary business closures, disrupted supply chains and a strong security presence.

This may deflect any criticism aimed at the officials responsible for the measures, including ultimately Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.

Beijing can live with a degree of embarrassment if things go wrong, putting a positive spin on matters for its home audience and brushing off any foreign criticism. However, dealing with the pressures that may be released once the Olympics are over will pose economic challenges.