(Lack of) Progress reports

Next Wednesday, the European Commission issues its second annual progress report on judicial reform and anti-corruption efforts in Romania and Bulgaria, as well as efforts against organized crime in Bulgaria.  The accession of both countries in 2007 was qualified -- there were doubts about their readiness, leading to fears that they might not apply EU legislation properly and that their peoples might not enjoy the full rights of EU citizens.  The Commission set up a cooperation and verification mechanism, which issued its first report in June 2007, and an interim report this February.

At worst, the ‘safeguard clauses’ in the accession treaties could be invoked and sanctions imposed -- withholding EU agricultural or structural funds, and refusing to recognise the decisions of courts in Bulgaria or Romania.  Up to 500 million euros (795 million dollars) in pre-accession funding for Bulgaria under the PHARE and SAPARD schemes are already suspended and could now be lost. 

The previous reports were critical but stopped short of sanctions.  The Commission wanted to recognise the efforts made, but its leverage is weak.  There are technical difficulties in cutting funding, and non-recognition of judicial decisions would rebound on the other member states, by hitting the businesses investing in Bulgaria and Romania.  The opportunity to wield the EU’s most effective weapon -- delaying accession by a year to January 2008 -- was not taken in autumn 2006, despite misgivings at the time.

Sofia and Bucharest have moved to soften the unfavourable reports that are expected.  Bulgaria has introduced a new Supreme Judicial Council and a special agency to investigate high-profile crime; reformed the Interior Ministry; replaced ministers and senior officials; and appointed a deputy premier to oversee the use of EU funds.  Romania has replaced the justice minister and set up an agency to investigate elite sources of wealth.  But the trial of former Prime Minister Adrian Nastase, which might have an exemplary effect, is being stalled, and both countries’ elites are adept at creating the impression of cooperating with EU requirements while avoiding painful measures.

The EU is weak, depending on a corrupt political class to combat corruption.  Now that Bulgaria and Romania are in the EU, the incentive to press on with reform is much weaker.  A drive for reform may come from below, if the general populace decides enough is enough, with parliamentary elections expected in November in Romania, and due in Bulgaria next June.