Belgium: Last hope?

July 21 is usually a day of celebration in Belgium, yet on Monday King Albert II will have to contemplate no less than the disintegration of his kingdom as he addresses his people on their national holiday.

Following Prime Minister Yves Leterme’s resignation last week, after only four months in office, the prospects of a division of Belgium into two separate states along linguistic lines is becoming ever more real.  The crisis began with the inconclusive result of the June 2007 general election: nine months later an extremely fragile five-party coalition was finally cobbled together, but only because the decision on the key question of decentralisation was postponed until July 15.  When a compromise between the francophone and Flemish parties could not be found, the government collapsed. 

The king has so far refused to accept Leterme’s resignation, instead hoping that a solution can be found through his unprecedented consultation with Belgium's regional governments. While his people on the whole do not want to see a split in the country, constitution, institutions and time are not on the king’s side:

• Should he accept the resignation and parliament be dissolved, the constitution requires that federal elections take place within 40 days. Yet the Constitutional Court has ruled that federal elections cannot be held until some resolution to the conflict over the linguistic designation of electoral districts in the suburban communities around Brussels is found. This threatens to pit the courts against the legislature and the monarchy.
• Moreover, the lack of truly national institutions other than the monarchy gives politicians little incentive to support national unity.  The linguistic separation of the party system (there is no single national party) makes it more attractive to the political elite to fight for regional interests.
• Finally, the unfortunate timing of the government collapse, means that the king is expected to come up with a solution within only one week, when the government has not managed to do so in over twelve months.

On Monday, the king will have to explain when and how to hold early elections without first undertaking constitutional reforms. Moreover, he must explain who will govern the country until a lasting political resolution can be found. It is a daunting task. No less than the future of Belgium is at stake.