What’s next for Bashir?

A newly formed Sudanese cabinet committee will push hard for a unified, firm rejection of a potential International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir, when it meets with African Union and Arab League delegations on Sunday.

ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo submitted his request to the Court on July 14, charging Bashir of three counts of genocide, five counts of war crimes, and two counts of crimes against humanity related to the ongoing conflict in Sudan’s Darfur.  Khartoum reacted swiftly and predictably, condemning the move.  Sudan is not a signatory to the Rome Treaty which created the ICC, but the matter was referred to the ICC by the UN Security Council in 2005.  This has prompted concern at the UN that its staff in Sudan might face retaliatory attacks as a result of Ocampo’s move.  The UN has already removed 150 of its personnel from Darfur.

The potential arrest warrant has stirred controversy because of the potential impact on security in Darfur, if the government reacts by further hampering the UN/AU hybrid peace-keeping mission to the region.  However, some advocacy groups have welcomed the move, suggesting that it might increase leverage over the regime in Khartoum, which has thus far not seriously engaged in a peace process for Darfur.  The hope is that Bashir and his allies will act as better international citizens with the genuine threat of arrest over their head.

However, he is unlikely to be too concerned. The ICC will probably take at least six weeks to return a decision on the warrants, and it may be that the UN Security Council decides to delay the matter for up to twelve months more ‘for further consideration’, having granted the ICC jurisdiction in the first place.  Nor would Bashir immediately face the threat of arrest should a warrant be issued; at most, his travel in ICC participating countries would be constrained.

The Arab League is holding emergency foreign ministers’ meeting on Saturday in Cairo, and the AU will probably meet soon to discuss its stance.  The response so far from Africa and the Middle East has been fairly critical of the ICC move, and no real pressure on Bashir from his peers will be forthcoming.