Burma: Awkward anniversary

Saturday in Burma is Martyr’s Day -– commemorating the assassination of nine independence leaders in 1947, including the revered General Aung San. The country’s present-day military leaders are displaying signs of nervousness as the date approaches, with exile media outlets claiming that they have cancelled foreign diplomats’ invitations to attend commemorations. Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the pro-democracy campaign and daughter of the iconic general, is unlikely to be welcome, having been barred for several years.

The regime may be particularly keen not to draw parallels with national figures this year, following its widely-criticised response to Cyclone Nargis in May. In the weeks following the disaster the regime prioritised its own stability over relief efforts, resisting outside assistance with the worst cyclone the country faced since 1927, and leaving private individuals (in spite of official bans) to make up the difference.

The regime maintains control for now over the 420,000-strong military, and with it a grip on power (senior officers appear to have been reshuffled in June). While periodic bombings occur -- the last took place on Monday -- these have more to do with an ongoing battle with regional separatists than any wider unrest. However, many military officials had families involved in the disaster, and their loyalty depends on the regime’s capacity to feed and pay them. Now that flooding and population displacement has disrupted sowing in the country’s ricebowl, the Irrawaddy Delta, and international food prices have soared, the regime may struggle to buy its way out of trouble come harvest time in November.