South Africa: Saints and sinners

As celebrities and world leaders line up to wish Nelson Mandela a happy 90th birthday this week, never has the contrast between South Africa's former president and its present incumbent, Thabo Mbeki, looked so stark. An opinion piece in The Daily Telegraph remarks on the disparity: "such is his [Mandela's] moral authority that a brief reference to 'the tragic failure of leadership' in Zimbabwe carried more weight than hundreds of words spoken by other world leaders. And they were in marked contrast to the pussyfooting of his successor as president, Thabo Mbeki."

Mbeki's presidency is a Curate's egg; it has been partly good, and partly bad, but entirely spoilt by his weakness over Zimbabwe. His macroeconomic policies have contributed to an unprecedented period of economic growth.  His presidency also brought reform of policy-making structures, rapid expansion of the black middle-classes, and -- at least formally -- anti-corruption measures. Yet the cerebral, reclusive leader has persisted with his uncritical "quiet diplomacy" over Robert Mugabe, despite the policy's many failures. While the effects of this have been most grave for Zimbabweans, the worsening crisis has had adverse consequences for South Africa itself, not least because of the large number of refugees fleeing Zimbabwe.  Mbeki's international standing has plummeted as politicians and journalists criticise him.

Mbeki has also been progressively undermined by a series of misjudgements and personal shortcomings:

• HIV/AIDS: Shortly after taking office, Mbeki revealed his scepticism about the link between HIV and AIDS.  His denialist approach delayed the implementation of coherent prevention and treatment policies and has earned him scorn both at home and abroad.
• Crime: One of the most visible legacies of the apartheid era in South Africa has been the high level of violent crime.  Random murder, armed robbery and rape are still rife by international standards.  Despite public concern, Mbeki has failed to provide coherent strategy for tackling crime and at times, he has appeared ambivalent to the problem.
• Leadership style:  Mbeki has often appeared arrogant and out of touch with the public.  He has suffered from a lack of critical support from his closest advisers and also proved unwilling to sack even the most incompetent cabinet ministers. 

Last December, Mbeki lost the leadership of the ANC to Former Vice-President Jacob Zuma.  Although threats by the pro-Zuma faction to force Mbeki to retire early have now been withdrawn, there is a growing sense in business and policy circles that the long interregnum is proving politically and economically damaging.  As Mbeki prepares to leave office next year, his reputation looks damaged beyond repair.