Colombia's political theatre

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe and his Venezuelan counterpart Hugo Chavez meet this week for the first time since the dramatic rescue of 15 hostages held by FARC guerrillas, including former presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt and three US Department of Defense contract workers. 

Talks on Tuesday will cement restored diplomatic relations after the spat created by Colombia’s military incursion into Ecuador in March, in which guerrilla leader Raul Reyes was killed.

Since restoring relations, Chavez has moderated his rhetoric on the FARC. Earlier this year he referred to the group as a legitimate army, and held a one-minute silence to mark Reyes's death, but since has called on the FARC to end its armed struggle.  However, while Uribe and Chavez are likely to present a united front, Betancourt's release marks the end Chavez’ hopes to mediate dialogue between the Colombian government and FARC on an exchange of guerrilla prisoners for hostages.

What next for FARC?

Recent events raise fundamental questions about the future of the FARC, already extremely weak following the death of Reyes and its leader, Manuel Marulanda.  Once media coverage of Betancourt's release dies down, international interest in brokering dialogue on a 'humanitarian exchange' is likely to fade -- and in any case the hardline Colombian government has ruled out any international mediation.

This leaves the FARC with a number of options:

• Negotiation: The government's strategy has always been to use force to pressure the group into talking from a position of weakness.  It may be close to achieving this aim, particularly given the (increasingly useful) intelligence it has gleaned from FARC defectors. New university-educated FARC leaders may be more willing to consider dialogue with the Uribe administration, which the group has traditionally held in contempt.
• Military regrouping:  The FARC could attempt a counteroffensive, regroup militarily, and seek to reassert its authority in territory it controls, with the aim of forcing the government to take account of its strength.  However, this would be a long process, with a high risk of failure.
• Focus on narcotics:  The FARC owes much of its wealth to its role in Colombia's narcotics trade.  Its leaders now could refocus on the cocaine, attaining greater cohesion in the aftermath of recent operational chaos.  However, while it remains an important player in the drugs trade there is evidence that the group has lost control of the infrastructure used to process and transport cocaine. 

Uribe outlook

The recent hostage rescue and FARC distress are extremely positive for Uribe and his government:

• Attention has been diverted from a number of difficulties, including a long-running scandal over links between figures close to the president and right-wing paramilitaries, and doubts surrounding the constitutional amendment that allowed Uribe to be re-elected to a second term in 2006.

• The president's already extremely high levels of public approval have been consolidated, intensifying calls for him to seek an unprecedented third term.

Yet a second Uribe re-election remains far from certain, given the harm that his maintenance in office, facilitated by repeated constitutional amendments, might do to Colombia’s democratic culture and institutions. Furthermore, Uribe may now face a rival in the form of Betancourt herself.

While generally praising the president, she has suggested that his approach to the FARC is too hostile. A Betancourt presidential bid is a possibility, and a real threat to Uribe -- though one he might try to neutralise by offering Betancourt a ministerial role, as he did with former hostage and current Foreign Minister, Fernando Araujo.