Global Risks

Major changes since June 26, 2008.

Headline risk

The prospect has increased of increasing climate regulation:

• G8 leaders have agreed a target of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 50% by 2050, and recognised the need for medium-term targets, which it would be up to individual countries to meet. This may add impetus to the UN Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is due to conclude in Copenhagen next December.
• Environment ministers from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation have drawn up an action plan for tackling climate change. Even though South Asia does not have a good track record on this issue, and there is a risk that political sensitivities will undermine efforts to develop a common strategy, international cooperation will be key to managing the impact of climate change in the region.

However, while the United States is likely to be an increasingly willing participant in this process, particularly once the next administration takes office, major developing country emitters, particularly India and China, will continue resisting pressure to adopt stricter emissions targets. Indeed, before leaving for talks on the sidelines of the G8 summit, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that global efforts to tackle climate change must take into account the development imperatives and aspirations of developing economies.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.