Global Risks

Major changes since June 19, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk increased of a return to 'hot' wars in the Horn of Africa, after the UN Security Council considered a Belgium-sponsored draft resolution on the future of the UN peace-keeping mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), which could see the mission disbanded. Without UNMEE to provide a buffer between the two militaries, small incidents have a much greater chance of sparking a resumption of hostilities. However, there were also downward pressures on the stress balance, with Khartoum and the semi-autonomous government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) agreeing to establish a tribunal at the Permanent Court for Arbitration at The Hague to resolve the long-standing dispute over the border around Abyei. North-south tensions should be ameliorated in the short term, though Abyei's status will remain a key point of contention.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.