Cyprus: no more 'Mr. No'

The leaders of ethnically divided Cyprus -- the Mediterranean island split since a 1974 Turkish invasion triggered by a Greek-inspired coup -- meet Tuesday to push forward the country's peace process. Repeated initiatives by the UN over the past 30 years to reunify Cyprus as a bizonal federation have failed, yet a mixture of confidence-building measures and bold promises has recently improved reunification prospects. 

Greek softening?

Hugh Pope, writing in the Wall Street Journal Europe, sees the reasons for the new climate of optimism as a kind of 'Greek Road to Damascus'.

• EU safety net: Pope believes EU membership has given Greek Cypriots a new sense of security and empowered them to believe that they can at last negotiate a fair deal with Turkish Cypriots.
• New Kosovo? Greek Cypriots realised that the uncompromising stance of former hard-line leader, Tassos Papadopoulos -- the man known as 'Mr. No' -- was increasing international acknowledgment of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, thereby creating another potential Kosovo on their doorstep.
• Breaking taboos: New Republic of Cyprus President Demetris Christofias has broken many taboos since coming to power; he has accepted that Greek Cypriots may share responsibility for the conflict and said he is ready to allow 50,000 of the Turkish immigrants who have since moved to the north to remain in their adopted homeland.
• Kissing gates: On April 3, the two sides opened a new crossing in the heart of Nicosia's old city, creating the sixth such point on the ceasefire line between Turkish Cypriots in the north and Greek Cypriots in the south.

Political winds

The reunification deal needs to satisfy Greek Cypriot demands for unity and the demands of Turkish Cypriot President Mehmet Ali Talat for autonomy. Cyprus would have one federal government with a 'single international personality', but two constituent states 'of equal status.'

Yet the political winds are with Christofias. His own party, the Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL), has long been the strongest proponent of developing contacts with the Turkish Cypriot community in order to reunify the island, though it voted, tactically, against the benchmark UN reunification plan in the 2004 referendum. The main opposition party, the conservative Democratic Rally (DISY), is also pushing hard to settle the conflict.

The two eminences grises will likely be conciliatory: Athens and Ankara have recently improved bilateral relations and support the negotiations. Greece will likely publicly declare that it supports the Cyprus government in whatever sovereign policy it pursues, and Turkey will insist that the 'sovereign' Turkish Cypriots are free to pursue their chosen course. Behind the scenes, Athens will apply pressure on Christofias to ensure he pursues a policy consistent with Greece's larger concern of promoting good relations with Turkey.

All this compromise is economically -- as well as politically -- expedient, Pope explains. Greek Cypriots have traditionally prospered economically while Turkish Cypriots have struggled under the international isolation; the standard of living in the south is currently about four times that in the north. Yet the tourism sector is struggling, and Turkey's strong economy could allow the island to become a hub for financial services.

Timescale

Both sides want swift progress, but are singing from different sheets. Talat seeks a solution by year-end on the basis of the 2004 UN blueprint for a federal state, whereas Christofias wants a deal on the basis of a 2006 UN plan for step-by-step peace-building measures. An agreement within the next 12 months could be possible.

There remain contentious issues: questions about the presence of Turkish troops in the north, the return of refugees from the south and their property claims, and the de facto economic embargo on the north. Christofias might also face political constraints from hardliners in his government coalition.

Yet expectations are high and the unprecedented mutual trust and confidence make reunification more likely than before. If the talks founder, there may be a return to the bad old ways: Greek Cypriots could use their EU membership as a wrecking-ball for the bloc's relations with Turkey, as they have done before. Turkey may retaliate by using its NATO membership to punish the EU. Both sides risk peace and prosperity -- though this has not deterred them from self-sabotage in the past.