Zimbabwe: Mugabe's mobs

Tensions are high ahead of Friday's presidential run-off, after weeks of violence targeting opposition supporters.

Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai won the March 29 presidential election, but his official tally -- 47.9%, released after weeks of delay -- showed that he had fallen short of the 50% mark needed to avoid a second round.  President Robert Mugabe, who placed second with 43.2%, has stepped up a rhetorical campaign against the opposition since the general elections, branding them traitors and Western puppets.  Tsvangirai has been detained several times during the run-off campaign, and other senior figures have also been arrested, including MDC Secretary-General Tendai Biti, who remains in jail.

Violence and intimidation

The regime has also unleashed a campaign of violence and intimidation against  MDC supporters, in an apparent effort to prevent a repeat of Mugabe's March loss on Friday.  Dozens of opposition supporters have reportedly been killed -- estimates range to over 100 -- with hundreds detained and beaten.  The military, police and intelligence services, as well as the 'war veterans' movement, have overseen the violence.  Senior military figures have also come out in support of Mugabe, and indicated that they would refuse to allow Tsvangirai to take power.

African observers are beginning to arrive, and in greater numbers than for the March vote.  However, even if the levels of violence decline over the next week as a result of their presence, weeks of intimidation may have already taken their toll on opposition supporters, who may not turn out to vote.  Regional pressure on Mugabe for a transparent poll has been ineffectual at best; despite stronger criticism from leaders in Zambia and Kenya, South African President Thabo Mbeki has not altered his strategy of quiet diplomacy, and continues to push for dialogue between ZANU-PF and the MDC.

Political deterioration

Although the ruling party does not appear inclined to delay the polls, and will probably take all necessary steps to ensure Mugabe's victory, the aftermath will still be complicated for his regime.  This is because the MDC won a majority in the House of Assembly, and tied Mugabe's ZANU-PF in the Senate. 

As such, he will face unfamiliar legislative obstacles, which suggest continued economic and political deterioration.  A mooted government of national unity -– Mbeki's preferred outcome -- perhaps including Tsvangirai as prime minister, would present difficulties of its own.  MDC participation might increase the government's legitimacy, but effective control by Mugabe and ZANU-PF would discourage the donor support needed to cushion the difficult economic transition that the country faces, if it is to halt hyperinflation and continued economic deterioration.