Ukraine: NATO challenges

NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer will visit Ukraine on Monday, reaffirming the alliance's commitment to Kiev, despite challenges from opponents of Ukraine's NATO accession.

Ukraine's pro-Western, but bitterly divided, government submitted a formal request for a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) -- the penultimate step before NATO membership -- ahead of the alliance's April summit. In lieu of a MAP, NATO promised Ukraine and Georgia eventual membership.  

Russia perceives NATO's promise to Ukraine as a strategic setback.  Unable to leverage NATO to drop its support for Kiev, Moscow has instead dangled threats over Ukrainian leaders' heads.  Most recently, senior Russian officials suggested that Ukraine's sovereignty over the city of Sevastopol -- home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet -- could be called into question.

De Hoop Scheffer therefore faces two challenges in Kiev: the first is to build the alliance's relationship with Ukraine without irreparably damaging Russian-NATO or Russian-Ukrainian relations.  The second, and perhaps greater, dilemma is how to bolster popular support for NATO accession. Less than 25% of Ukrainians want their country to join the alliance. Anti-NATO groups have held sway in the public debate over NATO membership, portraying the organisation in stark Cold War-era caricatures of military subjugation.  Yet Kiev has not yet developed a strategy to counter NATO opponents' sophisticated rhetoric. 

Ukrainians are unlikely to be mollified by promises from Western delegations.  If Kiev is truly committed to alliance accession, it will need to build support for NATO from the ground up.  De Hoop Scheffer will no doubt convey this message to Ukrainian leaders.  It remains to be seen whether anyone will listen.