Olmert: downfall?

The next few weeks could see the downfall of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.  The embattled premier, who is dogged by claims of corruption, has authorised his centrist Kadima party to prepare for primaries amid calls for snap elections. The party's steering committee starts deliberations on Monday.

Olmert had little choice. Police are investigating him over claims he received up to $150,000 in bribes or illegal campaign donations. Olmert says the sums were legal campaign contributions, and has said that he will step down only if the attorney general decides to indict him.

It may not prevent Israel's main opposition party from presenting a bill to dissolve parliament this week. The 'Knesset dissolution' motion should go to a preliminary vote on Wednesday, the right-wing Likud party said. It would need to pass three further more readings in the Knesset plenum and one vote in the House Committee before it takes effect.

According to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv newspaper, 48.4% of respondents think Olmert should respond to the current crisis by stepping down and calling an election. Conversely, 25.9% of respondents think Olmert should stay in office until -- if at all -- a court issues an indictment against him, and 18.7% say Olmert should take a leave of absence and allow another member of his Kadima party to replace him.

Defence Minister Ehud Barak, the leader of the Labour party in coalition with Kadima, has already called on Olmert to take leave of absence or resign. He has also threatened Labour's withdrawal from the coalition.

But Barak's threat to force an election is likely to be empty since Labour is in financial difficulties and way behind Likud in opinion polls. If Olmert steps aside, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, his deputy, is likely to take over for an interim period of 100 days. If he resigns outright, she is also the most likely successor.