Global Risks

Major changes since June 5, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has increased of a return to 'hot' wars in the Horn of Africa. Although talks have been an encouraging first step, the rush to a deal without bringing in the armed opposition risks undermining progress. A split appears to be forming within the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), which could seriously weaken its relevance as a negotiating partner, and complicate efforts to continue talks (1-year stress balance up 1.9; 5-year stress balance up 1.1).

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.