France: difficult defence

French President Nicolas Sarkozy might face serious tensions with the ‘establishment’ and the French public when he unveils the long awaited White Paper on Defence and National Security next week. Sarkozy was elected in May 2007 on a platform of 'rupture' with the past, not least in defence and military policy.  Since then, he has tried to explain his vision in more detail:

• On nuclear deterrence, Sarkozy adopted a more restrictive stance than his predecessor, Jacques Chirac, saying that nuclear weapons are strictly for defence purposes (not pre-emptive strikes) and only would be used against aggressor states (not non-state actors).  He also announced a 30% reduction in nuclear ground installations; the navy thus will operate most of the nuclear arsenal.  Finally, he called for new international disarmament treaties, speedy ratification from other signatories of the nuclear test-ban treaty and strongly condemned proliferation of nuclear weapons.  While clarification of the deterrence doctrine will be welcome, his international non-proliferation plans will be less so (not only with Iran, but also in the United States -- which resists international commitments).

• On Africa, Sarkozy announced that he would “renegotiate” all France’s military agreements with African states, echoing earlier promises to break neo-colonial ties between French and Francophone African presidents.  France still has 6,540 permanent troops stationed in four African countries (the only former colonial power to do so), some 3,270 troops in three temporary bases, and participates in multilateral peace-keeping operations with almost 1,500 personnel.  However, complete troop withdrawal is unlikely, and recent direct involvement of French troops in operations in Chad, Somalia and Comoros does not suggest any major rupture in France’s military presence in Africa.

• On NATO and European defence, Sarkozy has announced France’s return to integrated NATO structures, but has made this conditional on rapid progress with the European Security and Defence Policy. In order to achieve the latter, he is planning (during France’s upcoming EU presidency) to launch a core EU defence group, which would include the United Kingdom.  By adopting an openly Atlanticist stance -- a major break with Chirac’s anti-Americanism -- he hopes to win over the United Kingdom, traditionally suspicious of all things European.  However, his EU and NATO plans face major obstacles, at least in the short term: domestically unpopular UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown is unlikely publicly to endorse an EU military force and the French public is unlikely to embrace NATO and Washington with the same enthusiasm as Sarkozy.

Given that the Foreign and Defence Ministries drafted the White Paper, many of Sarkozy’s grand visions are likely to have been watered down significantly.  The extent to which they are diluted will give an important indication of Sarkozy’s authority over the establishment and prospects for a real rupture with the past.