EU: Celtic calamity?

The future of Europe is yet again in the hands of a few million Irish voters when they decide the fate of the Lisbon Treaty on Thursday.

In 2005, French and Dutch voters rejected the Lisbon Treaty's predecessor -- the draft constitutional treaty. It not only killed that treaty, but also plunged the EU into a deep crisis from which it has not yet fully recovered. An Irish 'no' vote would certainly have similar, most likely even more severe, effects.

Encouraging signs

The outcome of Thursday referendum is far from predictable. There are a number of encouraging signs:

• Pro-Europe. Ireland, whose economy has benefited greatly from EU subsidies, remains one of the most pro-European nations in the 27-member bloc.
• Popularity surge. The government, which strongly supports the Lisbon Treaty, has enjoyed a surge of popularity since Prime Minister Bertie Ahern handed over power to Brian Cowen last month.
• An 'aye' from farmers. Last week, the most influential farmers' union -- the Irish Farmers' Association, which represents 85,000 rural families -- finally gave its full support to the Lisbon Treaty after securing important concessions from Cowen regarding the EU's WTO trade negotiations.
• Positive polls. The latest opinion polls show an eight-point lead for the 'Yes' camp.

Strong 'No' campaign

However, there is some cause for concern given the most recent developments, as well as past experience of referendums in Ireland and other EU countries:

• Late 'No' surge? Support for the 'No' camp has risen more quickly (five percentage points to 33%) than that of the 'Yes' camp (only three percentage points to 41%). Over 25% are still undecided. More significantly, the eight-point gap is now narrower than that observed just before the Irish 2001 referendum on the EU's Nice Treaty, which memorably resulted in a 'No' vote. In large measure, Nice was lost because pro-treaty supporters simply never bothered to vote, while the 'Vote No' turnout campaigns were effective.
• Ballot misunderstanding. While Irish voters will be asked to support or reject the Lisbon Treaty, past experience suggests that they are unlikely to be responding to the exact question on the ballot paper. Voters tend to base their decision on issues related to the question at hand or relatively unrelated considerations like wanting to punish an unpopular government. Dutch voters in 2005 rejected the draft EU constitution, largely because they opposed Turkish EU-entry; yet the constitution did not directly touch on that issue. The current 'No' campaign has successfully tapped into unique Irish attitudes towards farm subsidies and abortion, claiming the Lisbon Treaty poses a threat to them, even though these issues are not mentioned in the document.
• Funding boost.  The 'No' campaign has also enjoyed generous funding from eurosceptic factions from across the EU.

Since Ireland is the only country to hold a referendum (the country's constitution can only be amended by a referendum, and all other 26 EU members are ratifying by parliament), eurosceptics have piled all their anti-Lisbon efforts into the Emerald Isle as their only hope to stall the treaty. A similar influx of resources from pro-European groups has not materialised, largely to avoid the appearance of trying to lecture the Irish on their European 'duty'. This has led to an overexposure of the anti-EU and anti-Lisbon campaign.

The 'Yes' camp is sure to step up its campaign during these last crucial days. If the farmers' unions manage to mobilise and convince their members to vote 'yes', the referendum is likely to pass. Yet low turnout will play in the hand of the 'No' vote and might plunge the EU in its deepest crisis to date.