Iran: Nuclear timetable

Tuesday, June 3

There is no conclusive evidence that Iran currently intends to build nuclear weapons or has taken the decision to do so at some later date.

However, the latest US National Intelligence Estimate, partially released in December 2007, concluded with "moderate to high confidence" that Tehran was at least keeping its options open. This follows a compelling logic, given the regime's perennial security fears.

The IAEA and Iran have been working to resolve a list of six remaining areas where Tehran's activities have not been explained to the IAEA's satisfaction.

Five of the issues listed in the ‘work plan’ agreed in August 2007 have, in fact, been resolved to the IAEA’s satisfaction. Yet the remaining issue goes to the heart of concerns that Iran has previously engaged in nuclear weapons-related activities with the involvement of the Iranian military. These alleged activities involve:

• specialised testing with high explosives;
• the design of re-entry vehicles for missiles suitable for nuclear weapons; and
• the involvement of the military in uranium conversion activities.

Tehran has rejected the intelligence allegations as "forgeries", but refuses to provide information disproving or explaining the evidence provided to the IAEA on these matters.

Its insistence that it has never, and will not, experiment with nuclear weapons technology is not credible. However, Iran likely would still require at least 3-5 years to develop a functional nuclear weapon, if it chose to do so.