Iran: carrots and sticks

The IAEA's board of governors meets this week to dissect Director General Mohammed El Baradei’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear programme. 

The report, which focuses on alleged research into nuclear warheads design and explosives, is blunter than usual, raising US hopes that it might persuade the UN Security Council to adopt a further, tougher round of sanctions on Tehran. At the same time, Security Council members are dangling in front of Iran a package of incentives to give up uranium enrichment.  The rather confusing mix of carrot and stick highlights the Bush administration's waning influence over events in the region, while Tehran’s abrupt rejection of both reflects its confidence.

Washington’s problem is that Moscow and Beijing, while keen to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, continue to hedge their bets, working for a negotiated settlement of the issues.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently suggested that security guarantees should form part of the incentives package.  Washington rejects this notion, but any new US president will have to bite the bullet if Iran's ambitions, and the corollary risks of a regional arms race, are to be contained.