Global Risks

Major changes since May 15, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has grown of a new Argentine sovereign debt default (1-year stress balance up 1.4):

• The continuing dispute between the government and agricultural groups will hit tax revenues and provide a focus for rising opposition.
• The falling trade balance since farm strikes began highlights the fragility of the trade and fiscal surpluses.
• The rising risk of energy shortages is likely to affect growth and export revenues, as well as the mood of consumers.

 

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.