Bubbling Baltics

Latvia hosts the Baltic Sea States Summit on Tuesday and Wednesday this week -- an opportunity to attempt a fresh start in regional diplomacy, especially in relations with Russia.

Relations between Russia and countries formerly controlled by Moscow, especially the Baltic republics and Poland, have often been less than amicable.  Since these countries joined the EU in 2004, mutual mistrust has also increasingly tainted EU-Russia relations, particularly as Russia regained geopolitical clout under the Putin presidency. 

Yet ties with Moscow have improved markedly since the low-point in May 2007, which saw the near-cancellation of the EU-Russia summit:

• Following Russia's move to end the Polish meat embargo, Warsaw dropped its veto, which had prevented the start of negotiations on the long-delayed EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA).
• Similarly, Lithuania last week abandoned its veto of the PCA, which means that negotiations can now begin as early as next month’s EU-Russia summit.
• Last week’s Polish-Swedish proposal for an ‘Eastern Initiative’ -- initially expected to establish a ‘Baltic Union’ exclusive to littoral states along the lines of Nicolas Sarkozy’s Mediterranean Union scheme -– might have angered Moscow ahead of this week’s Baltic summit.  Yet it proved so weak that Russia’s leaders seem hardly to have noticed it.
• Similarly, a non-binding yet symbolically important European Parliament report adopted this week, which was extremely critical of the Russian-German Nordstream pipeline project under the Baltic Sea, did not prompt any Russian fury. 

Russia will continue to arouse suspicions among its western neighbours.  The Baltic Republics and Poland will continue to try and reduce their energy dependency on their former master: Poland and Lithuania will build a power link connecting the two countries' electricity grids by 2012, while the three Baltic states are also planning a 'power bridge' with Sweden.

Yet this week’s Baltic summit will provide an excellent opportunity for confidence building on all sides:

• The agenda does not include any over-ambitious items, which could cause the summit to fail.  Most importantly, unrealistic hopes and fears about this summit trying to establish a powerful ‘Baltic Union’ have been silenced, thanks to the almost pre-emptive announcement of the ‘Eastern initiative’.
• The relatively low profile and small membership of the Baltic Sea States Council will give ample opportunity for both multilateral and bilateral informal talks. Member states will be able to learn more about Russia’s new president and his plans, even though he is unlikely to attend in person.

Russia, for its part, will not be isolated at the summit. Germany will show solidarity in an effort to get some support for the Nordstream pipeline from the other littoral states, all of whom remain extremely sceptical about the project.