Mexico Drugs War Intensifies

Friday, February 15

Recent killings of senior police and army officials suggest that the government has managed significantly to hurt drug cartels, and corruption among police and other government bodies.  Drug cartels also are showing their ability to respond violently.  Further escalation is expected. 

Clashes between drug gangs and government forces that leave people dead or injured have become routine.  Violence between rival cartels, and police that may be on their payroll, create a sensation of open warfare.  In addition, recent killings of top officials represent an important government setback.

There is no sign that the Calderon administration will waver in its fight against drug cartels.  However, the frustration high-level killings have caused is evident.  With a police force that lacks manpower and training, the government continues to use the army.  As the administration lacks alternatives, the opposition has stopped questioning this.

Nonetheless, politics in Mexico and the United States has had a negative impact.  The so-called Merida Initiative, which Calderon and President George Bush announced in October 2007, was supposed to be similar in scope to Plan Colombia.  However, significant limitations soon became apparent: 

• The law, and strong Mexican nationalist feeling, impede the presence of US army personnel in Mexican territory. 
• As the Republican Party lost its congressional majority the previous year, Bush lacked the power to push strongly for legislators to approve the initiative. 
• The original cost of 500 million dollars per year for three years became a key issue for the US Congress, along with the possibility of trained Mexican army personnel defecting to drug cartels, or human rights violations. 

For the 2008 fiscal year, costs already been trimmed, with the US House of Representatives set to discuss funding worth 400 million dollars, and the Senate 350 million.  If approved, even 350 million would represent welcome respite for the Mexican government. 

While the situation in Mexico resembles Colombia's 1980s drug war, unlike in Colombia, drug cartels have yet to adopt urban guerrilla-style tactics, such as indiscriminate bombing.  However, The possibility that drug cartels may have infiltrated guerrilla groups may explain why the government recently signalled willingness to negotiate with the Popular Revolutionary Army (EPR). 

While recent spiralling violence may be a sign of the Calderon administration's success against drug cartels, it also indicates that no end to the conflict is in sight, and the government needs as much help as possible.  Violence could worsen significantly.