Sadr's strengths

Tuesday, May 27

The main objective of Muqtada al-Sadr is to live up to the legacy of the martyred male relatives to whom he owes his current status.

To do so, he needs to maintain freedom of action vis-a-vis the three institutions that have historically threatened his family's influence: the Baghdad government, the Shia religious establishment, and the government of Iran.

The mercurial Shiite leader has a number of limitations:

• His movement has the ability to periodically launch short uprisings in its areas of strength (Baghdad, Basra, and pockets of most southern cities), but it is not a force capable of challenging the US-backed federal government's authority in a sustained manner.
• It cannot yet match its strong appeal among the dispossessed Shia youth with broader appeal to other classes of Shia or other Kurdish and Sunni communities. Sadrist influence is further reduced by internal feuding among many sub-factions.
• Sadr is not yet a mujtahid - a cleric capable of interpreting Islamic law and issuing fatwas. Unlike his father, who attained the rank at 34 years old, the 35-year-old Sadr would be pressed to attain it by the time he is 40. In the meantime this is a key limitation on his authority.

At the same time, he benefits from strong urban support and an ability to periodically shake the government’s grasp on security, and is well-positioned for upcoming provincial and parliamentary elections.

Despite limits on his near-term power, Sadr is displaying the patience, pragmatism and support base of a long-term political heavyweight.