Eurovision: barometer?

The Eurovision song contest culminates with a glitzy finale in the Serbian capital of Belgrade on Saturday. The competition, which is more a celebration of old friendships and alliances rather than of music, is a useful -- if tongue-in-cheek -- barometer of political sentiment.

Neighbourly voting

This year, the organisers have introduced a new voting system in response to criticism of last year's qualifier, in which no western European countries made the final. Semi-finalists have been divided into two groups based on their usual voting preferences to lessen the impact of 'neighbourly' voting and allow a broader range of countries to reach the final. Traditional voting allies Greece and Cyprus -- who awarded each other with the maximum number of points in virtually all years during the period 1993–2003 -- have been split up, while the Baltic, Scandinavian and former Yugoslav countries have been separated.

Serious business

Bloggers and political wonks think it is a serious business:

• Two Dutch mathematicians, Laura Spierdijk and Michel Vellekoop, believe that systematic bias and collusive voting in Eurovision can hardly be doubted and have established strong evidence for voting bias in the song contest on the basis of geography, even after correction for culture, language, religion and ethnicity. They also noted that countries with a substantial Turkish population are strongly biased toward the Turkish contribution to the song contest.
• Dr. Derek Gatherer, a scientist who has been studying the song contest for the past five years, has identified collusive voting patterns within five separate blocs: the Anglo-Irish Agreement, the Viking Empire, the Partial Benelux, the Pyrenean Axis, the Balkan Bloc, and the Warsaw Pact.
• Entertainment journalist John Kennedy O'Connor insists voting runs along cultural, rather than political, lines. "With the Balkans, I genuinely don't think it is out of political allegiance as ten years ago they were trying to wipe each other off the planet," he said. "Soviet satellite states now support each other and the Russians. You would have thought they would do the opposite and give the Russians a kicking."

At any rate, winning can even do wonders for a country's pride. A Spanish documentary claimed that British singer Cliff Richard was robbed of victory in 1968 after Spanish dictator Francisco Franco fixed the vote.

Marija Serifovic's victory at the 2007 contest caused an outpouring of national pride in Serbia. When Serifovic landed at the Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport, around 100,000 people prepared a mass rally for her in front of the Civic Assembly of Belgrade. Serifovic then sang her winning hit song 'Molitva' (Prayer) at an election rally of the Serbian Radical Party, endorsing the presidential candidacy of the party's nationalistic president Tomislav Nikolic and adding that her song was 'a prayer for a new, different and more honest Serbia'.

The Eurovision format and political intrigue may also be exported abroad. Eurovision organisers recently said a TV company had bought the licence to use the format in North Africa and the Middle East.