Japan/Africa: Weak Fukuda

Of all the Asian giants scrambling for influence and opportunities in Africa, Japan can stake a claim to the longest relationship, going back more than 50 years. Yet expectations will be modest when Japan hosts the fourth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) on Wednesday in Yokohama.

TICAD is the most significant Africa event in Japan's calendar.  The meeting -- held every five years since 1993 -- brings together business leaders, development specialists and politicians from Africa, Japan and South-east Asia. 

Tokyo was, until the 1990s, Africa's dominant economic partner, and remains a key player in the region.  However, since then other Asian economies have more effectively and more deeply engaged with the continent -- in particular China, but also India, Malaysia and other smaller players. 

Ahead of the summit, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced that foreign aid to Africa would be doubled over the next five years, evoking similar G8 pledges at Gleneagles in 2005 -- surely no coincidence ahead of this year’s G8 summit, which Japan will also host. 

This pledge is not all talk: it seems that Tokyo hopes to target infrastructure and agriculture (especially rice production), as well as to encourage private investment into Africa.  However, Fukuda's weak political position does raise questions about his ability to redeem these pledges -- or to ensure that his successor does.  While relations with Africa remain a significant policy priority, especially in light of China's growing influence, Japan's ability to follow through over coming years will be dictated to a large degree not only by the weakness of the ruling LDP party, but more importantly by tight fiscal constraints.