Taiwan: political sea change

A sea change occurs in Taiwan politics this week as President-elect Ma Ying-jeou takes office. Yet tempestuous times may lie ahead.

Pro-China Kuomintang (KMT) recaptured the presidency and consolidated its legislative majority in elections earlier this year, giving it control of a system it ruled alone for five decades before losing the presidency in 2000.  The KMT's victories over its main rival, incumbent President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), give it a mandate to implement its policies. Yet the very magnitude of KMT's successes could challenge Ma.

Maintaining unity in the legislature and putting together a cabinet line-up that satisfies party loyalists are crucial first steps. KMT legislators, emboldened by their party's oversized majority, may rock the boat. The party has been weakened by infighting in recent years and legislators may insist on pork barrel spending for their districts in exchange for their votes on party priorities. And after eight years out of power, the KMT also has a backlog of ambitious would-be leaders seeking positions in the new government.

Given the party's lopsided legislative majority and strong presidential mandate, retaining popular support will be less of a problem in coming months than maintaining party discipline; Ma can at least count on high personal popularity in his honeymoon period.