Obama's hillbilly blues

Following Senator Hillary Clinton’s lopsided (67%-26%) May 13 victory over Senator Barack Obama in West Virginia’s Democratic presidential primary, there has been a great deal of superficial analysis in the US media suggesting that Obama cannot win the support of working-class whites.  This assertion is false, or at best, incomplete -- as Tuesday’s Oregon primary will demonstrate.

Obama has largely failed to attract the support of working class whites in one key area of the country: Appalachia, a term used to describe a mountainous region in the eastern United States.  This is a serious problem for his campaign, because to capture the White House in November he must win Pennsylvania, and may need Ohio as well. 

Culturally insular

There are many reasons for his poor performance in this region, and racism (over 20% of West Virginia voters said race affected their choice in the primary) is only one of them.  Other factors include:

• Few ‘yuppies’ -- There are relatively few upper income and/or college-educated whites in Appalachia.  West Virginia has the lowest percentage of college graduates in the nation (14.8%).
• Low incomes -- The residents of the Appalachian spine have much lower median incomes than the national average.  West Virginia’s median income is less than 34,000 dollars per year, which puts it 47th out of 50 states.
• Cultural factors – Appalachia was largely settled by the Scots-Irish -- Scots Protestants who were transplanted to the Irish pale of settlement in the 17th-18th centuries.  They tend to be exceptionally self-reliant and culturally insular, and therefore unreceptive to Obama’s communalist message.

Go West, young man!

However, many of these characteristics apply only to Appalachian whites.  Working-class whites in other regions have very different social and cultural mores, which sometimes gives them a greater affinity for Obama.  This is particularly true in the West; Obama has won a majority of the white vote in most states west of the Mississippi River.

Oregon, which votes Tuesday, is likely to back Obama by a large margin, offsetting his expected loss in Kentucky. 

This is not, as some commentators have maintained, because Oregon has a much richer, better educated population than Kentucky -- an Appalachian state with a population of comparable size.  There are more than a few failing blue-collar industries in Oregon, such as the moribund timber industry and once-lucrative salmon fishing.  Nor is it because the Beaver State has a significantly more diverse population: Oregon is 94% white (90% of Kentucky’s population is white), and has significantly fewer blacks. 

Instead, the Oregon difference is explained by two factors: relative economic optimism and dynamism, and an outward-looking culture.  Oregon is the home of one global corporation (Nike), and is heavily oriented towards trade with Asia.  Its population is younger, and growing faster than Kentucky’s.  More secure, optimistic voters -- including working-class whites -- are more willing to take a chance on something new.

Appalachian spring?

Making inroads in Appalachia will be very difficult for Obama.  He will be aided by the headwinds that appear to be facing the Republican party, due to the unpopularity of the incumbent president; this may be enough to secure victory in Pennsylvania.  Nevertheless, to have a shot at capturing Ohio in November, he almost certainly needs to make a direct overture to Appalachian whites in his choice of running mate: either by tapping a popular regional governor (such as Ohio’s Ted Strickland), or choosing one of their own -- Virginia Senator Jim Webb.

Webb might be a particularly potent antidote to Obama’s perceived ‘elitism’.  A tough political brawler of Scots-Irish ancestry, Webb is also a decorated Vietnam veteran and economic populist who served as Secretary of the Navy under former President Ronald Reagan.  Yet he was so incensed by President George Bush’s conduct of the Iraq war that he switched parties and unseated seemingly-unbeatable former Virginia Senator George Allen.  His first act on Capitol Hill last year was to snub Bush’s polite effort to shake hands; like the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain (and unlike virtually all other members of Congress), Webb has a son who has served in Iraq.

If he wants to take in his next Appalachian spring as the White House incumbent, Obama may need to pick Webb.