Global Risks

Major changes since May 15, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has increased of civil war in Lebanon. While all parties remain keen to avert civil war, and Hizbollah is not mounting a coup, militia activity is increasing and Hizbollah is pushing for a greater share of political power. Spreading violence highlights the risk of fighting getting out of hand even if factional leaderships wish to contain it. Hizbollah will feel emboldened to use force again to press its demands for a greater share of power. Moreover, the army's non-confrontational approach could create an unfortunate precedent, and is creating tensions within the military.

 

Other rising risks

• A return to 'hot' wars in the Horn of Africa

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.