Burmese-style democracy

Politics is poised for change, of sorts, as a constitution is put to Burmese voters next week.

It guarantees the military a significant political role: a quarter of parliamentary seats, for example. It also makes it impossible for the National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to run for office (by barring those who have been married to a foreigner). She won the last elections in 1990 but the results were never recognised. In theory though, it moves the country towards 'civilian rule' with an elected parliament and an executive presidency.

More elections are planned in 2010, which suggests that the junta is outwardly sure of its position and of its ability to secure a 'yes' vote for its new charter. It can count on the support of its 20 million-strong mass support group and plenty of others it has coerced and threatened.

Yet there has also been a significant campaign against the constitution, which took 14 painstaking years to draft. The NLD and the Generation 88 group are among those calling on the Burmese to dismiss the document, while others back a boycott.

At least 50% of votes must be 'yes' for the constitution to be adopted. In this scenario, the junta will move on with its 'road map for reform'. If the no voters prevail, things could turn ugly, with further repression or even emergency rule. Either way, the ageing military rulers are not inclined to loosen their iron grip on the country.