Terror trail : silver lining?

The 'Global War on Terror' is leaving a trail of violence in its wake. The release of a US government database of worldwide terrorist attacks highlights the continuing, extreme levels of non-state violence in Iraq and Afghanistan and the growing disorder in Pakistan.

There is a paucity of good news, although violence diminished in peripheral areas such as Colombia, while European police and intelligence agencies successfully foiled several high-impact plots.

• Iraq continues to dominate the statistics, with around half of total attacks and some 60% of the casualties.

• Pakistan saw perhaps the grimmest change, with total attacks doubling and the number of injuries and deaths quadrupling.

• Incidents classed as suicide attacks rose by a full 50%, as a worldwide surge in suicide bombings showed no sign of abating.

Some 9,400 police officers died in terrorist incidents in 2007, according to the figures, while some 2,400 children were on the death toll.

Silver lining

There is a silver lining to the Iraq statistics. Al-Qaida's legitimacy rests on convincing supporters that it acts justly to defend Muslims against domination by foreigners. On current trends, this message may increasingly be undermined: as the State Department notes, several radical causes adopted the Al Qaida 'brand' during 2006 and 2007, importing it into conflicts in Algeria and Libya as well as longer-established battlegrounds.

This insertion into intractable local conflicts -- such as the confrontation between radical Islamists and the state in Algeria -- has already pushed the Muslim share of the death toll to around 50% of fatalities in 2007, according to the data.

If Al-Qaida's potential supporters associate the group with the indiscriminate slaughter of their fellow practitioners -- rather than daring assaults against US interests -- its call to violence may no longer hit home.