Somalia: meeting with the enemy

Somalian Prime Minister Nur 'Adde' Hassan Hussein's reconciliation efforts may pay off next Saturday (May 10), if a meeting in Djibouti with the political opposition goes ahead.

Nur Adde took office in November, and has tried to reconcile the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) -- made up mainly of former TFG figures and 'moderate' elements of the Council of Somali Islamic Courts (CSIC), which controlled Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia for the latter half of 2006.  The prime minister has also held up the possibility of talks with the various elements of the armed insurgency, which emerged in the wake of Ethiopia's end-2006 intervention to expel the CSIC and install the TFG.

However, Ethiopian and TFG troops have come under intensified attack from insurgents this month.  Moreover, Ethiopia has come under increasing international scrutiny by human rights groups for the response of its troops, which are accused of indiscriminately targeting civilians in its counter-insurgency operations.  Ethiopia denies the charges, but there is no doubt that its continued presence in Somalia provides a focal point for armed resistance, or that the fighting has led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands -- especially from Mogadishu -- who are now in dire need of humanitarian assistance.

The increased violence could derail the talks.  Even if they go ahead, to lead to reconciliation, the dialogue will eventually have to expand to include insurgents.  This has been made more difficult both by the upsurge in militant activity and the recent US designation of al-Shabaab, an Islamist militant group responsible for much of the violence, as a terrorist organisation. Indeed, the United States carried out an air strike in Somalia late last week that killed at least 10 people, including senior al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Aden Hashi Ayro.