Russia: the Kremlin's prisoner

Dmitry Medvedev is inaugurated as president of the Russian Federation on Wednesday.  Parliament votes the next day to confirm former President Vladimir Putin, Medvedev's nominee, as prime minister.  The day after that, the new duumvirate presides over the Victory Day parade through Red Square.  And then things start to look uncertain, although Medvedev has revealed that his first foreign trip will be to Kazakhstan, going on to China.

In constitutional theory, the president is the stronger and superior office-holder, appointing the government and directing such important federal agencies as the Security Council.  In political practice, the system looks flexible enough for the more authoritative Putin to hold onto real power, which may accompany him as he moves from the Kremlin to the White House -- as the seat of the Russian government is confusingly called.  There will be a period of uncertainty during which new 'rules of the game' are established to determine how the dyarchy will work.  Even if they are of one mind on how to divide responsibilities, with Medvedev perhaps specialising in foreign affairs, their subordinates may not be.

Medvedev may have accepted the role of decorative president with his eyes open, leaving Putin to run the show.  However, this balance could shift, with Medvedev growing into the role and Putin losing ground, taking the blame if -- for instance -- the economy fails to deliver better living standards.  Such may even be the game plan, with Putin easing himself out of power.  Either way, the system will not tolerate any true sharing of power: there will always be one who speaks, and one who listens.