Will Brown lose London?

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown will face his first electoral test on Thursday since becoming prime minister last June, and the prospects for its Labour party in the local elections are not promising.

Although local elections are usually fought on local issues, this one is likely to be more of a reflection of general public dissatisfaction with the dour Scot's stewardship of the country.

Honeymoon over

Brown enjoyed an strong surge in popularity last summer following good management of various crises, including an attempted terrorist attack at UK airports, a renewed outbreak of food-and-mouth disease and biblical summer floods. This honeymoon led to speculation about an early October/November general election. Yet:

Rather than nipping media speculation over a general election in the bud, Brown allowed it to swirl. It seriously diminished his authority, and media criticism of him intensified.
A litany of scandal -- involving official incompetence at data handling, as well as illegal donations to his Labour party, and above all the protracted rescue attempt of failing mortgage lender Northern Rock -- have done little to reverse Brown's political misfortunes.
The emerging economic and financial crises -- high inflation, low growth, collapsing house prices, diminishing access to credit -- and the lack of fiscal flexibility to boost the economy, mainly due to generous public spending under Brown's tenure as Chancellor of the Exchequer, have added to his problems.

The possibility of a recession is particularly problematic for Brown, as his political reputation rests almost entirely on his economic record of ten years as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Rebels from within the Labour party have begun to take advantage of his weakened authority. Discussions and rumours about possible successors to Brown have been allowed to circulate quite freely.

Party rebels

Rebels openly and successfully challenge Brown's policies:

Last week they forced him to partially reverse the recent tax increase from 10% to 20% for workers on low income, which was intended to finance a tax cut from 22% to 20% for workers on higher incomes.
They are now sniping at Brown's plan to allow terrorist suspects to be detained without charge for 42 days, which will be voted on later in May.

Although the U-turn on the tax issue will be a relief to people on low incomes -- ie Labour's core voters -- the fact that Brown proposed the tax increase in the first place might prompt many of them to stay at home on Thursday. Brown's weak leadership credentials may persuade other potential Labour voters to switch allegiance.

Night-Mayor

This strong dissatisfaction with Brown may prove particularly detrimental to Ken Livingstone, who is seeking a third term as Mayor of London on Thursday.

Livingstone, whose main challenger for City Hall is gaffe-prone Boris Johnson from the Conservative Party, is Labour candidate in name only. That does not stop him being damaged by the charges levelled against Brown. Protest votes or abstention from disenchanted Labour supporters, coupled with a voting system that favours non-polarising candidates, may prove a fatal combination for Livingstone.

The Labour party is certain to suffer great losses on Thursday and even risks losing its London stronghold. This is likely to trigger a full-blown leadership and succession debate in the Labour party.