Will South Africa be ready for the 2010 World Cup?

In June, tickets will go on sale in South Africa for 2010 World Cup matches, taking place in 10 stadiums, in 'nice' cities across the country.  The rest of the world will be allowed to buy from September.  Yet as 2010 gets closer, a number of concerns have arisen about the country's capacity to host such a vast event.

Overblown?

On some issues, fears are probably overblown.  Similar concerns abound in the run up to nearly every major international tournament, and turn out to be mostly hype: for example, the 2004 Olympics in Athens and the 2007 Africa Cup of Nations in Ghana. 

The government is fully behind the infrastructural and logistical improvements necessary for the tournament.  Five stadiums are being constructed, and five refurbished.  There are massive road, rail and air transportation projects underway as well.  The government will spend an estimated 30 billion rand in preparation for the tournament, which it hopes will augment its economic growth-led approach to reducing poverty and unemployment.  While the construction industry is certainly overstretched, projects related to 2010 are a high priority. 

Nevertheless, there are three issues in particular that give pause in this case:

• Electricity. The state-owned energy company, Eskom, acknowledged earlier this year that electricity shortages are going to be the norm for the next two to three years while new generating capacity is constructed and brought on stream.  This could slow construction, although Eskom says World Cup projects will not be affected.
• Broadcasting.  Telecommunications suffers in South Africa from capacity constraints and high costs.  The government is trying to overcome this with additional bandwidth, including an undersea cable project -- Seacom -- which should be on-stream by 2009.  The South African Broadcast Corporation (SABC) is also trying to shift from analogue to digital broadcasts between 2008-11, a process that will complicate coverage of the World Cup.  A further logistical hurdle will be linking up with the rest of Africa: South Africa is notionally hosting the tournament on behalf of the continent, but many broadcast agencies across the continent use older technology to which SABC will somehow have to provide a bridge.
• Security.  South Africa suffers from some of the worst rates of crime in the world, particularly violent crime, with nearly 20,000 murders per year (about 50 per day), and robberies not far behind.  Despite increased spending on the police, crime rates have not dropped dramatically.  The deputy minister for safety and security caused a row earlier this month by demanding police 'shoot to kill', and not waste time with warning shots first.  Her comments reflect the urgency of the problem, if not the ideal solution.

South Africa's gleaming sky-scrapers and beautiful resorts, the by-products of decades of investment under apartheid, contrast with the extreme poverty and unemployment still prevalent among much of the populace.  The question is whether the trend of rising tourism -- on target for 10 million visitors per year by 2010 -- will be derailed by concerns over safety and security if the country cannot bring crime under control.