Mexico: the quiet man fights

Despite winning the bitterly contested 2006 presidential election by the thinnest of margins, President Felipe Calderon immediately embarked on an ambitious reform agenda. He has had some success, mainly due to good political skills, the disarray of his opponents and his low-key approach. He will need some street fighting spirit in the next month if he to hustle an energy reform bill through both houses of Mexico's parliament.

Calderon's bill, introduced earlier this month, would allow outside companies to build and operate refineries, while allowing state oil monopoly Pemex greater autonomy. The president, mindful of dwindling oil output, needs better technology if he is to drill deeper into the Gulf of Mexico seabed. The timing of the bill suggests that Calderon was seeking to secure its approval by the end of the current legislative session, at the end of this month.  This requires it to pass in the Senate this week.

Masterstroke needed

It will take a political masterstroke to pull it off. State control over the oil sector, which was nationalised 70 years ago and enshrined in the constitution, is a nationalist sacred cow. Opposition parties have howled that Calderon's proposals will lead to parts of Pemex being sold off. They want a national debate on the bill before Congress considers it.

Legislators from the Broad Progressive Front (FAP), a coalition led by the centre-left Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) responded to the bill's presentation by storming the podiums of both houses of Congress; they subsequently erected barricades around themselves and began a hunger strike.

FAP's action made legislative business impossible, leading both houses of Congress to reconvene at an alternative venue in the congressional complex.  Given that the speaker of the lower house is the PRD's Ruth Zavaleta, this appears to have exposed divisions within the party.  It is also likely to galvanise opposition to FAP tactics, which could actually ease the reform's passage over the medium term -- the current parliamentary session ends next week, and figures within the government have acknowledged there is no chance of passing the bill before then.     

Firebrand

Leftist leader and former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will seek to gain further political mileage from the imbroglio, announcing the formation of 'oil defence brigades', which he has threatened to use to blockade key infrastructure in Mexico City, as well as Congress.

Yet large-scale protests could leave Calderon strengthened, particularly if the energy reform eventually passes, as it would be the second time that Lopez Obrador's direct action has failed -- his supporters blocked main roads in the capital after his narrow defeat in the 2006 presidential race.  Indeed, a recent opinion poll in daily newspaper Reforma showed that 63% favour oil sector reform, which suggests that the nationalist card ultimately may not be as compelling as Lopez Obrador believes.