Nepal: the Maoist march

Maoists will march towards electoral victory in Nepal this week as results from April 10 constituent assembly elections continue to trickle in. Early counts indicate that the vote was a Maoist rout, propelling the Maoist leader known as 'Prachanda' -- the fierce one -- to political glory.

The Maoist performance has wildly surpassed expectations. It is barely two years since they ended a ten-year insurgency. Since then, Nepali politics have undergone dramatic change. While insurgents have joined the mainstream, the monarchy has been forced to the sidelines.

The new assembly will write a constitution and run the country, in line with a 2006 peace agreement. Widespread support for the Maoists points to a strong desire for change -- and comes despite the former rebels' poor reputation for their treatment of children or their use of extortion.

Maoist responses to victory will set the tone for the constitution-drafting process. Equally significant will be the responses of monarchists, the army, the 'establishment' politicians that are the casualties of the election and the ethnic groups demanding better political representation.

Foreign powers are watching these developments warily. The United States has undermined its position in the country with its insistence on labelling the electoral victors as terrorists. India will fear losing its capacity to influence events, and worry about the implications for its own Naxalite movement.