Global Risks

Major changes since April 10, 2008.

Headline risk

The risk has increased of deep recession in the United States

• The trade deficit unexpectedly rose to 62.3 billion dollars in February, from 59.0 billion dollars in January, which means that the economic boost the falling dollar has provided, in the form of higher exports, may be limited. Coupled with the rising federal budget shortfall, which will decrease room for further fiscal stimulus, this suggests that growth will be even weaker than expected this year
• However, the consumer price index rose just 0.3% month-on-month in March, which suggests that the threat of 'stagflation' is receding. This should give the Fed leeway for further aggressive rate cuts.

 

Other rising risks

• Return to protectionism
• Return to serious disruption in the Balkans

 

You can see a complete list of Global Stress Points we are monitoring on the guest page of the live service.

You can learn more about the Global Stress Points Matrix™, or request a trial through the service information page.